Part Nineteen
Memorie.al / In 1993, the United States of America feared a military clash between Albania and Serbia. In a declassified document for that year, it is emphasized that due to the relations between Belgrade and Prishtina, Tirana too could be drawn into the conflict. However, the document provides an overview of the military capabilities of both countries. According to the CIA, in 1993 Albania and Serbia could not be compared. The Serbs had a modern army, many times more advanced. According to the document, Albania at that time still had military materiel from the time of the Soviet Union and communist China. These were armaments inherited from the communist regime, but which had come during the relations with China and Russia.
Continued from the previous issue
Intelligence Memorandum
European Analysis Office
January 5, 1993
Albania’s army cannot measure up to the Serbian forces, which are modern and well-equipped, in the event that the Kosovo conflict spreads to Albania. Albanian forces have old weapons, supplied by the Soviets and the Chinese, without ammunition and without the training or transport required in intensive combat operations.
The lack of funds has prevented Albania from modernizing, but recently its Ministry of Defense has been expanding the number of contacts for assistance from other armies in equipping and training the military.
Defense officials are seeking to reduce the number of soldiers, to eliminate communist elements, and to make the army a more flexible and adaptable force.
We believe the government will try to avoid direct confrontation with the Serbs if violence erupts in Kosovo, but some clashes between Serbian and Albanian forces will be unavoidable.
Tirana will certainly help the Albanians of Kosovo with light weapons and supplies, and will become a transit point for volunteers, weapons, and supplies from other countries.
Their assistance to the Kosovars will surely lead to retaliation by Serbia against Albanian bases, seeking to draw Albania into the conflict.
Although Albania will seek help from the international community, this will come mainly from Turkey.
Ankara has already trained some Albanian officers and has promised more assistance if Serbia invades Albania, according to the American defense attaché there.
Tirana is very concerned that the Kosovo conflict could turn into a war in Albania. The army ordered a partial mobilization in the north of the country in May, and in June stationed there several infantry and artillery units closer to the border.
In October the army placed the two divisions on the border with Kosovo on alert, and the Deputy Minister of Defense met with the Defense Councils to discuss readiness levels.
Albanian Forces
The Albanian Armed Forces have about 65,000 troops, and the Ministry of Defense has mobilization plans for about 400,000 in the event of a crisis.
Ministry of Defense officials claim that each of the 21 ground force divisions can reach 20,000 troops. Military officials say they can mobilize 70 percent of their forces within 24 hours.
In our opinion, the Albanian armed forces do not have the equipment, training, and capability to create such a force, and their commands are thought capable only of limited border defense against small incursions.
Ground Forces
The 21 divisions, with shortages in personnel, training, and equipment, have about 58,000 troops in peacetime. Currently, three divisions with about 6,600 troops are deployed on the border with Kosovo.
Air and Air Defense Forces
The air and air defense forces, of about 4,000 people, have about 90 or fewer aircraft, from the 1950s–’60s. Albania has no modern surface-to-air missiles.
Naval Forces
Its naval forces, of about 3,000 people, are little more than a small security force for anti-piracy operations and interception of traffickers.
The fleet has some patrol boats with automatic weapons and torpedoes, as well as some vessels for mine-laying or mine-clearing. The fleet has some submarines out of service, left by the Soviets in 1961.
Budget constraints have caused the army to reduce its spending by more than 11 percent, to less than 8 percent of the national budget in 1993, which further reduces the limited combat capabilities, with no possibility of other payments for the ministry besides personnel salaries.
Albania’s ground weapons, communications equipment, aircraft, and ships are all outdated Soviet and Chinese products. Recently a general complained that the army had not received new equipment from abroad for 17 years.
Most of its Chinese tanks are versions of the Soviet T-54 model, and about 90 percent of the aircraft inventory is MiG-17s or MiG-19s. Albanian submarines of the oil era are limited to diving only to about 10 meters, according to the defense attaché.
Maintenance of its equipment is poor, and according to the military attaché there have been no funds for years to buy spare parts. Training is either non-existent or very poor. The Air Force has an annual flying time of 15 hours, i.e., 165 hours a year, less than NATO pilots.
Combat units rarely use their weapons in live-fire training, and tanks are reported to fire only once a year. Large-scale training is never conducted, and reservist training is limited to seven days in two years.
The Army’s Wretchedness
The armed forces have primary shortages in fuel supplies, medicine, and clothing. Some garrisons plant and grow their own vegetables for the soldiers’ food. This year the Ministry of Defense said Albania would welcome uniforms, shoes, and hospital equipment from the West.
Command and control relies on old Soviet communications equipment. Ground forces are controlled more in the southern part due to the Greek threat, and not in the north near Kosovo.
The chain of command is complicated by all units reporting directly to the Ministry of Defense, according to the American army attaché. Tirana has no hope of modernizing its army without help from other countries, and for this officials are expanding their contacts with Western countries.
Albania will send officers to study in Germany, Italy, Turkey, Austria, Greece, and the United States, as well as to former Soviet states such as Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria, to seek support in equipment.
The results of the assistance campaign have been modest, but Albania has received about 100 military transport vehicles from Germany, as well as some loans, food, and clothing from Turkey.
Force Capabilities
The army can mobilize enough troops to confront small clashes, but cannot withstand a serious Serbian incursion with modern weapons. Shortages in transport and the weak road and rail network hinder the movement of units toward the border with Kosovo.
Nevertheless, Albania can contain a limited Serbian attack on the border, where the difficult terrain favors the defenders. By calling up about 50,000 reservists living near the border, the army could begin using guerrilla warfare tactics to counter the Serbs.
Although the government will come under strong domestic pressure to act in aid of the Kosovars, we do not believe Tirana will consider the use of force as a practical option for defending the Albanians. The Albanian Air Force cannot measure up to that of its Serbian neighbors.
Without air defense, the ground forces would be helpless against about 260 relatively modern Serbian aircraft and armored vehicles they might face.
Albanian naval units are perhaps capable only of laying naval mines or some sporadic attacks on the nearby Serbian port of Bar, in Montenegro, but these attacks would be costly and would surely bring Serbian counteraction.
Serbian Force in Kosovo
Belgrade has improved the capability of its forces in Kosovo since July and can counter an Albanian uprising within a few hours. By October, Yugoslav brigades in Kosovo had engaged numerous garrisons and reservists.
In addition to about 25,000 troops of the Serbian Ministry of the Interior, the Yugoslav army has at least 10,000 well-equipped people and about 200 tanks, 160 armored vehicles, and 160 artillery pieces in Kosovo.
They can also call up another 10,000 additional troops in the event of a crisis. Belgrade has about 26,000 other troops, 50 kilometers from Kosovo, in units equipped with 120 tanks, 100 armored fighting vehicles, and 260 aircraft.
There are also about 75,000 ethnic Serbs aged 15 to 59 in Kosovo and thousands of Serb paramilitaries from Bosnia and Serbia who could join the conflict. Although the Serbs dominate militarily, the Kosovo conflict could be prolonged.
About 250,000 ethnic Albanians claim to be armed and will surely fight in guerrilla style in the mountainous terrain, and possibly in terrorist form against Serbian targets in Kosovo and outside it.
Although Tirana will try to avoid direct military confrontation, it will be drawn into the conflict by its assistance to ethnic Albanians.
It will certainly provide indirect assistance in weapons, training, or military advisers, and will allow its territory to become a base for Kosovar guerrillas, at least unofficially.
Stalled Military Reform
Recognizing its military weaknesses, Tirana is trying to emerge from its previous isolation, seeking numerous military contacts with other countries, especially with the United States and Turkey, for assistance in reorganizing and modernizing its forces. The country’s economic priorities currently surpass military ones.
Defense Minister Safet Zhulali has announced plans to reduce the army to lower costs and eliminate communist influence.
In May and June, the minister replaced several old members of the general staff and 80 percent of commanders who had ties to the Communist Party, according to reports.
Many of the replacements are majors or captains with little experience. According to the minister’s plans, another 9,000 officers will be replaced by mid-1993.
The Ministry of Defense plans to reorganize its forces into a more flexible structure and consolidate about 1,500 garrisons into more manageable bases, facilitating control and command.
The 21 ground divisions will most likely be reduced to 9 divisions, each with wartime strength of 15,000 to 18,000 people, while in peacetime 2,000 troops, according to various reports. / Memorie.al
